Portfolio Company Forecasting

This guide explains how to build consistent, comparable portfolio company forecasts for funds, VC, PE and family offices in Model Reef.

You will:

• Represent each portfolio company as its own model or scenario.

• Standardise structure, drivers and outputs across companies.

• Create fund level rollups for revenue, EBITDA, cash and valuation.

• Use scenarios for portfolio cases, exits and downside planning.

Model Reef is not a fund accounting or registrar system. It is a modelling and scenario engine for portfolio companies and consolidated portfolio views.

When to use this pattern

Use this pattern when:

• You hold multiple operating companies in a fund or family office.

• You need consistent forward views across diverse businesses.

• Investment decisions depend on comparable KPIs and valuations.

• You want a shared structure for IC packs, board reporting and LP updates.

It combines well with:

• Build a Full Financial Model from Scratch

• Build a Multi Entity Group Model

• Build a Multi Scenario Valuation Pack

• LP Reporting Dashboard

Architecture overview

Portfolio company forecasting uses:

• Company level models

  • One model per portfolio company.

  • Company specific branches, variables and drivers.

  • Standardised outputs (P&L, Balance Sheet, Cashflow, Waterfall, valuation).

• Templates and structure

  • A core template for SaaS, services, manufacturing, etc.

  • Standard categories, KPIs and valuation metrics.

• Portfolio rollup

  • Aggregate company level outputs into a portfolio view.

  • Compare companies on a like for like basis.

1

Create or import company level models

For each portfolio company:

• Create a new model using an appropriate template (for example SaaS, services, capital intensive).

• Or import from PDF, Excel or Xero QuickBooks to build a model automatically.

• Clean mapping so that P&L, Balance Sheet and Cashflow reconcile and the Cash Waterfall and valuation are working.

Make sure that each company model:

• Uses a clear branch structure (divisions, regions, product lines).

• Has the same period range or aligned dates where possible.

• Has valuation enabled with FCFF or FCFE depending on use.

Each company model then serves as the atomic forecast for that portfolio asset.

2

Standardise metrics and reporting layout

Define a standard reporting and KPI layout to apply to each company, for example:

• Revenue and growth by segment.

• Gross margin, EBITDA, EBIT and NPAT.

• Cash runway and net cash position.

• Key unit economics (for example ARR, ARPU, CAC, LTV, utilisation).

• Valuation metrics such as NPV, IRR and money multiple.

Implement this as:

• A standard custom report template.

• A standard dashboard pack (for example IC dashboard).

Apply the same template to each company model so that:

• Structure is consistent across the portfolio.

• KPIs are comparable without manual manipulation in spreadsheets.

3

Build portfolio level aggregation

Use a consolidating model or an external portfolio rollup (for example imported series) to combine outputs from company models, by:

• Importing key outputs (revenue, EBITDA, cash, valuation) as Data Library series into a Portfolio model.

• Or exporting CSV outputs from each model and reimporting them into a Portfolio model.

In the Portfolio model, create variables such as:

• Portfolio - Revenue by Company.

• Portfolio - EBITDA by Company.

• Portfolio - Cash and Net Debt by Company.

• Portfolio - NPV and IRR by Company.

Use branches to represent:

• Funds.

• Sub portfolios (for example Fund I, Fund II, Co investment, Direct holdings).

Aggregate these into portfolio level P&L style views and summary dashboards.

4

Incorporate holding periods, entry prices and exit assumptions

For each company, track:

• Entry Date and Entry Valuation or Price.

• Ownership percentage.

• Additional follow on capital injections.

• Target exit window and exit valuation assumptions.

You can represent these in either the company model or in the Portfolio model. In the Portfolio model, create variables for:

• Invested capital by company and by fund.

• Realised and unrealised value.

• Cashflows to and from the fund.

Use these to compute:

• Deal level IRR and money multiple.

• Fund level IRR and money multiple where you include all portfolio cashflows.

• Remaining value and upside under different scenarios.

5

Use scenarios for company and portfolio cases

Scenarios are separate models. Clone the base version of each company model into:

• Management Case.

• Base Case.

• Downside or Covid Case.

• Upside or stretch Case.

For each company model, adjust assumptions in each case, then refresh portfolio level series and compare:

• Revenue, EBITDA and cash projections.

• Enterprise value and equity value by company.

• Portfolio value, IRR and money multiple.

• Downside, base and upside outcomes at fund level.

This allows you to explore:

• Concentration risk.

• Dependency on specific companies or segments.

• Portfolio level resilience under stress.

Check your work

• Each company model reconciles correctly and uses consistent accounting rules.

• Reporting templates and KPIs are applied consistently.

• Portfolio aggregation is aligned with ownership and fund structures.

• Scenario outcomes are used in IC, board and LP reporting.

Troubleshooting

Companies are hard to compare

Tighten the common reporting template and ensure that all models map to it, even if internal management formats differ.

Aggregation does not match fund level numbers

Confirm ownership percentages, capital flows and any off model items such as fees or SPVs.

Too many scenarios make portfolio views noisy

Restrict portfolio level reporting to a small number of named scenarios (for example Base, Downside, Upside) and keep experimental scenarios separate.

Related guides

• Build a Terminal Value Model

• Build a Variance Analysis Model

• Variable Auto Creation

• Period Toggle Rules