Build a Terminal Value Model
This guide explains how to set up and interpret terminal value in Model Reef. Terminal value represents the value of cashflows beyond your explicit forecast horizon.
Before you start
You should have:
A working forecast with a reasonable explicit horizon (for example 5 to 10 years).
FCFF and FCFE series populated.
A sense of how the business behaves in the long run (growth rates, margins, capital intensity).
What you will build
A terminal value configuration using either:
A multiple applied to a financial metric, or
A long run growth framework applied to cashflows.
A clear view of how much of the total valuation comes from terminal value.
Choose an appropriate forecast horizon
Terminal value should represent the stable, mature phase of the business.
Check your model end date:
Does the business reach a sustainable margin structure before the final year?
Are growth rates trending towards a steady state?
If not:
Extend the forecast horizon until you see stable behaviour.
A cleaner horizon produces a more reliable terminal value.
Decide on terminal value approach
Model Reef supports two main conceptual approaches.
Approach A: Multiple based terminal value
Uses a market or transaction multiple.
Common for:
EBITDA based values.
Cashflow based values.
Approach B: Long run growth style terminal value
Uses a growth rate less than the discount rate.
Well suited where you trust your FCFF or FCFE profile.
Decide which approach aligns best with your use case and available market data.
Configure multiple based terminal value
Identify a metric in the final forecast year:
EBITDA.
EBIT.
FCFF.
FCFE.
In the valuation settings:
Select the Multiple method for terminal value.
Choose the metric to apply the multiple to.
Enter a conservative, evidence based multiple.
Model Reef will compute:
Terminal Value = chosen_metric_final_period × multiple.
Discount this amount back to the valuation date using the appropriate discount rate.
Check that the implied terminal value multiple looks sensible versus market comparables.
Configure growth based terminal value
Long run growth logic is commonly applied to FCFF or FCFE.
Confirm the final period FCFF or FCFE is representative of a stable steady state.
Choose a long term growth rate g:
Lower than the discount rate.
Often at or below expected nominal GDP growth.
In valuation settings:
Select the growth based terminal value configuration.
Enter g.
Model Reef will compute:
Terminal Value using your chosen FCFF or FCFE and growth rate.
Discount the terminal value back using WACC or the equity discount rate.
Analyse the contribution of terminal value
After configuration:
Look at the total valuation:
Sum of discounted explicit cashflows.
Plus discounted terminal value.
Check the percentage contribution from terminal value:
If terminal value drives nearly all the valuation, consider:
Extending the explicit forecast horizon.
Reducing long term growth or multiples.
Use scenarios:
Create alternative models with different terminal assumptions.
Compare how sensitive valuation is to the terminal configuration.
Check your work
Forecast horizon is long enough for the business to reach a reasonably stable state.
Terminal value assumptions are consistent with economic reality.
Terminal value does not dominate the valuation to an uncomfortable degree.
Documentation clearly explains how and why you selected your settings.
Troubleshooting
Related guides
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