Build an Equity Valuation Model (FCFE)

This guide explains how to build an equity focused valuation using free cashflow to equity (FCFE) in Model Reef. FCFE reflects the cash available to shareholders after debt service, debt movements and any other financing flows.


Before you start

You should have:

  • A working three statement model.

  • A Cash Waterfall configured with:

    • FCFF.

    • Interest.

    • Debt drawdowns and repayments.

    • Equity injections and dividends.

  • DCF using FCFF set up or at least reviewed.


What you will build

  • A FCFE series derived from your Cash Waterfall.

  • An equity valuation that discounts FCFE at an equity discount rate.

  • Equity NPV, equity IRR, equity Money Multiple and Payback metrics.


1

Understand the relationship between FCFF and FCFE

In Model Reef:

  • FCFF represents cash available to both debt and equity holders.

  • FCFE represents cash available to equity holders after financing flows.

Conceptually:

  • FCFE = FCFF

    • minus interest paid

    • minus net debt repayments

    • plus net debt drawdowns

    • plus equity issue proceeds (if you treat these as part of the equity cashflow pattern).

Model Reef computes FCFE automatically from your Cash Waterfall structure.

2

Inspect financing flows in the Cash Waterfall

  • Open the Cash Waterfall.

  • Confirm you can see:

    • FCFF.

    • Interest Paid.

    • Debt Drawdowns.

    • Debt Repayments.

    • Equity Issue Proceeds.

    • Dividends.

Confirm:

  • Timing and amounts of debt flows are correct.

  • Equity injections and dividends match your capital structure plan.

If these flows are incorrect, fix the underlying liability and equity variables first.

3

Locate FCFE

If FCFF and financing flows are set up correctly, Model Reef will show FCFE as the cashflow available to equity.

  • Identify the FCFE series in the valuation or Cash Waterfall view.

  • Check the shape:

    • Early negative FCFE can be normal where the business is still scaling or heavily investing.

    • Later positive FCFE should reflect the steady state or exit ready phase.

4

Configure equity discount rate

Equity is usually valued at a higher discount rate than FCFF because equity holders carry more residual risk.

  • Open the Valuation settings.

  • Enter an Equity Discount Rate, for example:

    • Higher than WACC for riskier equity.

    • Reflecting required return for shareholders.

Optionally define:

  • A specific risk premium.

  • Different discount rates for different scenarios or models.

Model Reef will use this equity discount rate to discount FCFE.

5

Set equity centric terminal value

You can define a terminal value from an equity perspective.

Option A: Equity based multiple

  • Choose an equity based metric, for example:

    • FCFE in the final forecast period.

    • Equity cashflows in a steady year.

  • In valuation settings:

    • Select a multiple and relate it to your chosen FCFE or earnings stream.

Model Reef:

  • Computes terminal equity value.

  • Discounts it using the equity discount rate.

Option B: Equity based GGM style

  • Choose a long run growth rate g applicable to equity cashflows.

  • Ensure g is lower than the equity discount rate.

Model Reef computes:

  • Terminal Equity Value using your FCFE and growth assumptions.

  • Discounts this value using the equity discount rate.

6

Review equity valuation metrics

In the valuation output:

  • Check Equity NPV:

    • Represents the present value of all FCFE plus terminal equity value.

  • Check Equity IRR:

    • Requires an initial equity investment or purchase price.

    • Shows the internal rate of return to equity investors.

  • Check Equity Money Multiple:

    • Ratio of total discounted equity cash inflows to equity cash outflows.

  • Check Payback:

    • The point in time at which cumulative FCFE recovers the initial equity outlay.

7

Compare FCFF and FCFE valuations

To understand capital structure impact:

  • Compare Project NPV (FCFF based) to Equity NPV (FCFE based).

  • Review:

    • How changes in leverage affect FCFE and equity IRR.

    • How differences in discount rates affect results.

  • Use scenarios or separate models to test different capital structures.


Check your work

  • FCFE behaves logically, especially when leverage is high.

  • Equity discount rate is clearly documented and justifiable.

  • Equity valuation metrics are consistent with FCFF level insights.

  • Dividend policies are reflected correctly in equity cashflows.


Troubleshooting

chevron-rightEquity IRR is extremely high or lowhashtag

Check the pattern of equity injections, FCFE and terminal value. Extreme early negative or extremely high terminal value can distort IRR.

chevron-rightFCFE is negative for too longhashtag

Review leverage, capex and working capital assumptions. This may indicate an unsustainable structure.

chevron-rightEquity NPV is greater than firm valuehashtag

Double check your FCFF and FCFE definitions and ensure they are not double counting or omitting flows.


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