> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://help.modelreef.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://help.modelreef.io/how-tos/valuation/build-a-multi-scenario-valuation-pack.md).

# Build a Multi Scenario Valuation Pack

This guide shows how to create a multi scenario valuation pack using several Model Reef models, each representing a different future state or deal structure.

## Before you start

You should have:

* A base model with a working DCF or equity valuation.
* A list of scenarios you care about, for example:
  * Base case.
  * Downside case.
  * Upside or high growth case.
  * M and A case.
  * Financing structure variations.

Remember: each scenario is a separate model in Model Reef.

## What you will build

* A set of scenario models with coherent differences.
* A valuation summary comparing NPVs, IRRs and cashflow profiles.
* A pack structure that can be exported or used in presentations.

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

### Define your scenarios

Common scenario types include:

* Macro scenarios:
  * Strong demand.
  * Flat market.
  * Recessionary environment.
* Execution scenarios:
  * Plan achieved.
  * Partial execution.
  * Under performance.
* Transaction scenarios:
  * Deal closes on base terms.
  * Deal closes on investor friendly terms.
  * Deal does not close.

Write a short description for each scenario so it is clear what changes between them.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Duplicate the base model for each scenario

From your base model:

* Duplicate the model once per scenario, for example:
  * `Model - Base`
  * `Model - Downside`
  * `Model - Upside`
  * `Model - Deal Case`
* Keep naming consistent so it is obvious what each model represents.

Each copy retains structure, variables, Data Library and valuation settings.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Modify assumptions within each scenario model

Within each scenario model:

* Adjust demand and growth assumptions.
* Modify pricing and margin assumptions where relevant.
* Adjust capex and operating cost profiles.
* Change funding structure if scenario involves different leverage.
* Update discount rates or terminal values where scenario risk changes.

Ensure changes are coherent and documented with notes.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Review valuation outputs per scenario

For each scenario model:

* Review:
  * FCFF and FCFE patterns.
  * Project and equity NPV.
  * Project and equity IRR.
  * Money Multiple and Payback.
* Note:
  * How valuation changes with each scenario’s assumptions.
  * Key risk indicators such as minimum cash balance.
    {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Build the valuation pack summary

Outside or alongside Model Reef:

* Create a summary table that includes:
  * Scenario name.
  * Short description.
  * WACC and equity discount rate.
  * Project NPV.
  * Equity NPV.
  * IRRs.
  * Key multiples (for example EV to EBITDA) if relevant.
* Complement with charts:
  * Bar charts showing NPVs per scenario.
  * Line charts for cash balance or FCFF per scenario.

You can export charts and statements from each model and assemble them into a single deck or document.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Export and share

Use:

* PDF exports of P\&L, Cash Waterfall and valuation sections.
* Screenshot or image exports of key charts.
* Accompanying narrative that explains:
  * What changes between scenarios.
  * Which scenario you consider central.
  * The range of plausible valuations.

This pack is suitable for internal decision making, boards, investors or lenders.
{% endstep %}
{% endstepper %}

## Check your work

* Each scenario model is clearly labelled and documented.
* Scenario changes are deliberate and coherent, not random.
* The valuation pack tells a clear, consistent story about risk and upside.
* Stakeholders can see how different assumptions map to different valuation outcomes.

## Troubleshooting

<details>

<summary>Scenarios feel too similar</summary>

Make bolder changes in the key drivers that are genuinely uncertain.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Scenarios feel unstructured</summary>

Anchor scenarios around clear narratives rather than arbitrary percentage changes.

</details>

## Related guides

* [Multi-Channel Revenue Forecasting](/use-cases/ecommerce-and-d2c-brands/multi-channel-revenue-forecasting.md)
* [Model Template Structure](/help/building-your-model/model-template-structure.md)
* [Model Templates](/help/workspace-and-organisation/model-templates.md)
* [Understanding the Interface](/syntax/understanding-the-interface.md)