Build a Multi Scenario Valuation Pack

This guide shows how to create a multi scenario valuation pack using several Model Reef models, each representing a different future state or deal structure.

Before you start

You should have:

• A base model with a working DCF or equity valuation.

• A list of scenarios you care about, for example:

  • Base case.

  • Downside case.

  • Upside or high growth case.

  • M and A case.

  • Financing structure variations.

Remember: each scenario is a separate model in Model Reef.

What you will build

• A set of scenario models with coherent differences.

• A valuation summary comparing NPVs, IRRs and cashflow profiles.

• A pack structure that can be exported or used in presentations.

1

Define your scenarios

Common scenario types include:

• Macro scenarios:

  • Strong demand.

  • Flat market.

  • Recessionary environment.

• Execution scenarios:

  • Plan achieved.

  • Partial execution.

  • Under performance.

• Transaction scenarios:

  • Deal closes on base terms.

  • Deal closes on investor friendly terms.

  • Deal does not close.

Write a short description for each scenario so it is clear what changes between them.

2

Duplicate the base model for each scenario

From your base model:

• Duplicate the model once per scenario, for example:

  • Model - Base

  • Model - Downside

  • Model - Upside

  • Model - Deal Case

• Keep naming consistent so it is obvious what each model represents.

Each copy retains structure, variables, Data Library and valuation settings.

3

Modify assumptions within each scenario model

Within each scenario model:

• Adjust demand and growth assumptions.

• Modify pricing and margin assumptions where relevant.

• Adjust capex and operating cost profiles.

• Change funding structure if scenario involves different leverage.

• Update discount rates or terminal values where scenario risk changes.

Ensure changes are coherent and documented with notes.

4

Review valuation outputs per scenario

For each scenario model:

• Review:

  • FCFF and FCFE patterns.

  • Project and equity NPV.

  • Project and equity IRR.

  • Money Multiple and Payback.

• Note:

  • How valuation changes with each scenario’s assumptions.

  • Key risk indicators such as minimum cash balance.

5

Build the valuation pack summary

Outside or alongside Model Reef:

• Create a summary table that includes:

  • Scenario name.

  • Short description.

  • WACC and equity discount rate.

  • Project NPV.

  • Equity NPV.

  • IRRs.

  • Key multiples (for example EV to EBITDA) if relevant.

• Complement with charts:

  • Bar charts showing NPVs per scenario.

  • Line charts for cash balance or FCFF per scenario.

You can export charts and statements from each model and assemble them into a single deck or document.

6

Export and share

Use:

• PDF exports of P&L, Cash Waterfall and valuation sections.

• Screenshot or image exports of key charts.

• Accompanying narrative that explains:

  • What changes between scenarios.

  • Which scenario you consider central.

  • The range of plausible valuations.

This pack is suitable for internal decision making, boards, investors or lenders.

Check your work

• Each scenario model is clearly labelled and documented.

• Scenario changes are deliberate and coherent, not random.

• The valuation pack tells a clear, consistent story about risk and upside.

• Stakeholders can see how different assumptions map to different valuation outcomes.

Troubleshooting

Scenarios feel too similar

Make bolder changes in the key drivers that are genuinely uncertain.

Scenarios feel unstructured

Anchor scenarios around clear narratives rather than arbitrary percentage changes.

Related guides

• Multi-Channel Revenue Forecasting

• Model Template Structure

• Model Templates

• Understanding the Interface