Build a Forward Valuation Using Ticker Fundamentals

Before you start

• The ticker symbol for the company you want to analyse.

• Whether you are focusing on FCFF or FCFE valuation.

• A rough view of growth, margin and capital structure assumptions for the forward period.

What you will build

• A model seeded with historical fundamentals from ticker data.

• Forecast rules applied to those fundamentals.

• A DCF or equity valuation based on the extended forecast.

1

Create a new model for the ticker

• In your workspace, create a new model.

• Name it for the company and the purpose, for example:

  • Valuation - Ticker - ABC.

• Set:

  • Currency to match the reporting currency of the company.

  • Model start and end dates to cover both historical and forecast periods.

  • Base periodicity (often annual or quarterly for listed company analysis).

2

Import ticker fundamentals

• Use the Stock Ticker import.

• Enter the company’s ticker symbol.

• Select the fundamentals you want to import, for example:

  • Revenue.

  • COGS.

  • Opex.

  • EBITDA.

  • Tax.

  • Balance sheet items.

• Run the import.

Model Reef will create Data Library entries and variables populated with historical data.

3

Review and tidy imported series

• Inspect the imported variables:

  • Confirm that line items like revenue, EBITDA and net income match reported data.

  • Check that units and time periods align with the company’s reporting calendar.

• Clean up naming and categories if needed to keep the model tidy and consistent.

4

Add forward looking assumptions

Model Reef can prefill forward periods using default logic, but you should make these explicit.

• For Revenue:

  • Add growth rate drivers for the forward years.

  • Apply them to the revenue variables.

• For margins:

  • Set target EBITDA and margin trajectories.

  • Adjust COGS and Opex variables accordingly.

• For capex and working capital:

  • Define simple percentage of revenue or explicit schedules.

• For debt and equity:

  • Model the expected capital structure going forward.

The goal is to move from historical data into a coherent forward forecast.

5

Configure valuation settings

• Open Valuation settings.

• Set:

  • WACC based on the company’s risk profile.

  • Equity discount rate if you plan to compute FCFE based valuation.

  • Terminal value method and parameters.

• Ensure the forecast horizon is sufficient to capture the company’s medium term trajectory.

6

Review FCFF, FCFE and valuation outputs

• Open the Cash Waterfall:

  • Confirm FCFF looks sensible over the forecast horizon.

  • Check that capex and working capital behaviour match expectations.

• If you are using FCFE:

  • Confirm debt movements and interest flows are correct.

• Review valuation outputs:

  • Project NPV.

  • Equity NPV.

  • IRR, Money Multiple, Payback.

  • Implied valuation metrics such as EV to EBITDA where relevant.

7

Use scenarios for alternative cases

Create separate models for:

• Base case.

• Bull case.

• Bear case.

In each:

• Keep historical imported data intact.

• Adjust growth, margin, capital structure and discount rate assumptions.

• Compare valuations across these case models.

Check your work

• Historical imported data matches reported company disclosures.

• Forward assumptions are transparent and documented.

• FCFF and FCFE behave rationally given the company’s economics.

• Valuation outputs are in a plausible range compared to market price.

Troubleshooting

Imported data does not match expected values

Double check the ticker symbol, reporting currency and data provider assumptions. You may need to adjust mappings.

Valuation diverges massively from market price

Review your discount rates, growth and margin assumptions. Market price reflects many factors, including expectations and risk premiums.

Related guides

• Long-Horizon Scenario Planning

• Mapping Branches

• Model Archiving

• Subcategory Selection