Multi-Phase Project Cash Flows
This use case explains how to model multi phase project cashflows for capital projects and infrastructure in Model Reef.
You will:
Represent project phases such as development, construction and operations.
Build cashflow drivers for each phase, including capex, opex and revenue.
Use timing, delays and schedules to model milestone and progress payments.
Connect project cashflows to group statements and valuation.
Model Reef is not a full project controls or scheduling tool. It captures financial consequences of project phasing using structured assumptions and time series.
When to use this pattern
Use this pattern when:
Projects span multiple years with distinct phases.
Cashflows differ significantly between development, construction and operation.
You need to understand funding requirements and payback profiles.
You want to align project level cashflows with group cash and valuation models.
It builds on:
Capex Program Modelling
Funding and Drawdown Structures
Long Horizon Scenario Planning
Build a Cash Waterfall Model
Architecture overview
Multi phase project cashflow modelling uses:
Project phase structure
Drivers and variables grouped by phase.
Timelines that span pre construction to operations.
Cashflow components
Development and pre construction cost.
Construction and commissioning capex.
Operating revenue and costs after commissioning.
Residual or decommissioning items where relevant.
Timing and payment behaviour
Milestone and progress payment schedules.
Retentions, claims and variations where approximated.
Payment delays and funding draw behaviour.
Integration
Roll up to group reports.
Inputs to valuation and funding models.
Define project phases and timelines
For each project branch, decide the phases you want to model, for example:
Phase 1: Development and design.
Phase 2: Construction.
Phase 3: Commissioning.
Phase 4: Operations.
Create Data Library drivers for:
Phase start and end dates.
Flags or multipliers that indicate which phase is active in each period.
Any overlaps between phases where development and construction run in parallel.
Use these drivers to control when phase specific variables are active.
Model development and pre construction cashflows
Create Opex and Asset variables for:
Feasibility studies and design.
Approvals, permits and professional fees.
Land acquisition if applicable.
Early enabling works.
Assign timing such that:
Development costs occur in the correct pre construction periods.
Land and long lived items are treated as Assets where appropriate.
Non recoverable development costs are treated as Opex.
These flows will appear in early periods of the Cashflow Statement and Cash Waterfall.
Model construction, commissioning and capex payments
Using Capex Program Modelling as a base, define:
Capex by asset type and construction phase.
Milestone or percentage of completion based payment profiles.
Retention amounts withheld until completion where you want to approximate this behaviour.
You can express construction cashflows as:
Periodic progress payments based on planned cash schedules, or
Scheduled milestone payments using timing rules and manual series.
Set payment delays and schedules to approximate contractual terms such as:
Payment 30 or 60 days after claim.
Retentions paid on practical completion and final completion.
This will create detailed construction phase cashflows and asset additions.
Model operational revenue, cost and sustaining capex
Once commissioning is complete, use normal operating modelling patterns to represent:
Project revenues, for example tolls, tariffs, availability payments or output based payments.
Operating costs including staff, maintenance, utilities and services.
Sustaining capex and major periodic maintenance.
Tie the start of operational variables to commissioning timing so that:
P&L and cashflows for operations begin when the asset is available.
Links to wider group revenue and cost models are aligned with project start.
You can use utilisation and capacity drivers to vary operational flows across time.
Integrate project cashflows with funding and group models
Combine project cashflows with Funding and Drawdown Structures by:
Aligning drawdown timing to development and construction cash needs.
Representing construction facilities, term debt and equity injections at project or group level.
Capturing interest during construction and capitalised interest where relevant.
At group level, project cashflows and funding movements will feed into:
Group Cashflow Statement and Cash Waterfall.
Balance Sheet assets and liabilities.
Valuation models based on FCFF and FCFE.
This gives you a coherent view from project to portfolio.
Use scenarios for timing, cost and revenue risk
Clone the project model into scenario models to test:
Delays in approvals, construction or commissioning.
Cost overruns in development and construction phases.
Different ramp up curves for operations.
Variations in tariffs, tolls or utilisation.
Changes in funding structure or cost of capital.
In each scenario, adjust:
Phase start and end dates.
Development and construction cost drivers.
Revenue and operating cost profiles.
Funding model drivers and discount rates.
Compare scenarios using:
Project level net cashflows and payback profiles.
Group level funding and covenant impacts.
Valuation metrics such as NPV and IRR.
Troubleshooting
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