Multi-Phase Project Cash Flows

This use case explains how to model multi phase project cashflows for capital projects and infrastructure in Model Reef.

You will:

  • Represent project phases such as development, construction and operations.

  • Build cashflow drivers for each phase, including capex, opex and revenue.

  • Use timing, delays and schedules to model milestone and progress payments.

  • Connect project cashflows to group statements and valuation.

Model Reef is not a full project controls or scheduling tool. It captures financial consequences of project phasing using structured assumptions and time series.

When to use this pattern

Use this pattern when:

  • Projects span multiple years with distinct phases.

  • Cashflows differ significantly between development, construction and operation.

  • You need to understand funding requirements and payback profiles.

  • You want to align project level cashflows with group cash and valuation models.

It builds on:

  • Capex Program Modelling

  • Funding and Drawdown Structures

  • Long Horizon Scenario Planning

  • Build a Cash Waterfall Model

Architecture overview

Multi phase project cashflow modelling uses:

  • Project phase structure

    • Drivers and variables grouped by phase.

    • Timelines that span pre construction to operations.

  • Cashflow components

    • Development and pre construction cost.

    • Construction and commissioning capex.

    • Operating revenue and costs after commissioning.

    • Residual or decommissioning items where relevant.

  • Timing and payment behaviour

    • Milestone and progress payment schedules.

    • Retentions, claims and variations where approximated.

    • Payment delays and funding draw behaviour.

  • Integration

    • Roll up to group reports.

    • Inputs to valuation and funding models.

1

Define project phases and timelines

For each project branch, decide the phases you want to model, for example:

  • Phase 1: Development and design.

  • Phase 2: Construction.

  • Phase 3: Commissioning.

  • Phase 4: Operations.

Create Data Library drivers for:

  • Phase start and end dates.

  • Flags or multipliers that indicate which phase is active in each period.

  • Any overlaps between phases where development and construction run in parallel.

Use these drivers to control when phase specific variables are active.

2

Model development and pre construction cashflows

Create Opex and Asset variables for:

  • Feasibility studies and design.

  • Approvals, permits and professional fees.

  • Land acquisition if applicable.

  • Early enabling works.

Assign timing such that:

  • Development costs occur in the correct pre construction periods.

  • Land and long lived items are treated as Assets where appropriate.

  • Non recoverable development costs are treated as Opex.

These flows will appear in early periods of the Cashflow Statement and Cash Waterfall.

3

Model construction, commissioning and capex payments

Using Capex Program Modelling as a base, define:

  • Capex by asset type and construction phase.

  • Milestone or percentage of completion based payment profiles.

  • Retention amounts withheld until completion where you want to approximate this behaviour.

You can express construction cashflows as:

  • Periodic progress payments based on planned cash schedules, or

  • Scheduled milestone payments using timing rules and manual series.

Set payment delays and schedules to approximate contractual terms such as:

  • Payment 30 or 60 days after claim.

  • Retentions paid on practical completion and final completion.

This will create detailed construction phase cashflows and asset additions.

4

Model operational revenue, cost and sustaining capex

Once commissioning is complete, use normal operating modelling patterns to represent:

  • Project revenues, for example tolls, tariffs, availability payments or output based payments.

  • Operating costs including staff, maintenance, utilities and services.

  • Sustaining capex and major periodic maintenance.

Tie the start of operational variables to commissioning timing so that:

  • P&L and cashflows for operations begin when the asset is available.

  • Links to wider group revenue and cost models are aligned with project start.

You can use utilisation and capacity drivers to vary operational flows across time.

5

Integrate project cashflows with funding and group models

Combine project cashflows with Funding and Drawdown Structures by:

  • Aligning drawdown timing to development and construction cash needs.

  • Representing construction facilities, term debt and equity injections at project or group level.

  • Capturing interest during construction and capitalised interest where relevant.

At group level, project cashflows and funding movements will feed into:

  • Group Cashflow Statement and Cash Waterfall.

  • Balance Sheet assets and liabilities.

  • Valuation models based on FCFF and FCFE.

This gives you a coherent view from project to portfolio.

6

Use scenarios for timing, cost and revenue risk

Clone the project model into scenario models to test:

  • Delays in approvals, construction or commissioning.

  • Cost overruns in development and construction phases.

  • Different ramp up curves for operations.

  • Variations in tariffs, tolls or utilisation.

  • Changes in funding structure or cost of capital.

In each scenario, adjust:

  • Phase start and end dates.

  • Development and construction cost drivers.

  • Revenue and operating cost profiles.

  • Funding model drivers and discount rates.

Compare scenarios using:

  • Project level net cashflows and payback profiles.

  • Group level funding and covenant impacts.

  • Valuation metrics such as NPV and IRR.

circle-info

Check your work

  • Phase timelines match project schedules at high level.

  • Development, construction and operational flows are clearly separated.

  • Cash timing and payment delays reflect typical contract conditions.

  • Scenario results are interpretable for project, finance and investment stakeholders.

Troubleshooting

chevron-rightCashflows appear in the wrong phasehashtag

Check phase flags and timing drivers to ensure variables are active only in intended periods.

chevron-rightDifficult to reconcile project totals to budgetshashtag

Validate that all development and construction cost items are included and that any contingency or escalation is accounted for separately.

chevron-rightModels become too complex for smaller projectshashtag

Use a simplified two phase structure, such as build and operate, and treat detailed timing inside each phase as aggregated series rather than fine grained schedules.

Last updated