> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://help.modelreef.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://help.modelreef.io/use-cases/media-agencies-and-creative-studios/retainer-and-project-pipeline-forecast.md).

# Retainer & Project Pipeline Forecast

This use case explains how to forecast agency or studio revenue from retainers and project work in Model Reef.

You will:

* Represent retainers, projects and clients in the branch and category structure.
* Build drivers for retainers, active projects and win rates by stage.
* Model timing of revenue recognition and cash receipts.
* Connect the pipeline to staffing, delivery and profitability views.

Model Reef is not a CRM or job management tool. It consumes high level pipeline and contract assumptions and converts them into financial statements, cashflows and valuations.

## When to use this pattern

Use this pattern when:

* Your agency or studio has a mix of retainers and project work.
* The sales pipeline is material to future revenue.
* You need to explain revenue shape and timing to owners, finance or investors.
* You want to test utilisation, hiring and profitability under different win and pricing scenarios.

You can combine this with:

* Staffing and Creative Resource Planning
* Production Budgeting and Delivery Models
* Multi Client Profitability
* Build a Driver Based Forecast

***

## Architecture overview

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

### Structure

* Branches for studios, offices or business units.
* Optional branches for large clients or practice areas.
  {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Retainer drivers

* Monthly or quarterly retainer fee per client.
* Start and end dates, with renewal assumptions.
* Fee indexation or step changes.
  {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Project pipeline drivers

* Pipeline stages and weighted values.
* Win rates and average project values.
* Expected start dates and durations.
  {% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Revenue timing

* Recognition patterns for retainers versus projects.
* Cash delays and payment terms.
  {% endstep %}
  {% endstepper %}

***

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

### Set up branches for studios and key clients

In the branch tree, create a structure that matches how you manage the business, for example:

* Agency Group
  * Studio - Brand and Creative
  * Studio - Digital and Product
  * Studio - Production
  * Key Client - Global FMCG A
  * Key Client - Tech B
  * Central Overheads

Optionally, give very large clients their own branches so you can see their P\&L and capacity impact directly. Smaller clients can be grouped and tracked via categories or Data Library entries.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Create retainer revenue drivers

In the Data Library, create a table of retainers, including:

* Client name or group.
* Branch or studio that services them.
* Retainer start and end dates.
* Monthly or quarterly fee.
* Fee indexation rate or scheduled increases.
* Probability of renewal on expiry.

For each retainer, create a Revenue variable such as:

* Revenue - Retainer - Client X - Studio Brand.

Use timing fields to set start and end dates. Use a simple formula or preset to apply:

* Flat or escalated fee over the retainer term.
* Gap periods for planned pauses if required.

Cash timing comes from payment terms and delay settings, for example 30 days or 60 days from invoice.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Create project pipeline stages and drivers

Define pipeline stages that reflect your sales process, for example:

* Stage 1: Qualified.
* Stage 2: Proposal.
* Stage 3: Verbal.
* Stage 4: Contracted.

In the Data Library, create series for each stage such as:

* Pipeline Value - Stage 2 - Studio Brand.
* Pipeline Value - Stage 3 - Studio Digital.

You can maintain these as:

* Total expected contract value per stage per period, or
* Number of deals and average deal size per stage.

For each stage, assign a win rate driver, for example 20 percent for Stage 2, 60 percent for Stage 3, 90 percent for Stage 4. Then compute weighted pipeline:

* Weighted Pipeline = Stage Value multiplied by Win Rate.

This provides the expected value of work likely to be won in each period.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Translate pipeline into forecast projects

To convert pipeline into revenue, define drivers for:

* Average project duration in months or weeks.
* Revenue recognition pattern, for example even over duration, front loaded or milestone based.
* Expected start lag from pipeline recognition to project commencement.

You can approximate this at aggregate level by:

* Forecast Projects Won per Period = Weighted Pipeline Value divided by Average Project Value.
* Revenue from Projects = Projects Won multiplied by Revenue per Project, spread over duration using schedules or presets.

If you want finer control, you can maintain a Data Library of named large projects with expected start dates, values and durations, then create Revenue variables per project.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Combine retainers and projects into total revenue

Total revenue per studio or client branch is the sum of:

* Retainer Revenue variables.
* Project Revenue variables derived from the pipeline.
* Any production or media pass through where you choose to model this separately.

Use categories and sub categories to distinguish:

* Retainer revenue.
* Project revenue.
* Pass through or third party costs if relevant.

Dashboards can then show revenue by type, client, studio and scenario.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

### Use scenarios for pricing, win rate and renewal risk

Clone the base model into scenario models to test:

* Higher or lower win rates by stage.
* Different pricing or fee structures for projects and retainers.
* Retainer renewal and churn rates.
* Delays in project start dates or extensions to delivery schedules.

In each scenario, adjust:

* Win rate and pipeline value drivers.
* Retainer fee and renewal assumptions.
* Project duration and revenue recognition patterns.
* Payment term delays and working capital settings.

Compare scenarios using:

* Revenue growth and mix between retainer and project work.
* Studio level utilisation when combined with staffing models.
* Cash timing and funding needs.
* Valuation outputs where relevant.
  {% endstep %}
  {% endstepper %}

***

## Check your work

* Retainer and pipeline values reconcile with your CRM or sales reports where possible.
* Revenue forecasts align with realistic delivery and staffing capacity.
* Scenario outcomes are defensible when discussed with commercial and delivery teams.
* The level of project detail is appropriate to your planning horizon and materiality.

***

## Troubleshooting

<details>

<summary>Revenue looks too smooth or too lumpy</summary>

Adjust project duration and revenue recognition patterns so they better reflect how work is delivered and billed.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Utilisation models break when pipeline moves</summary>

Check that you have not double counted project volumes and that staffing drivers are linked to the correct retained and project workloads.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Too many small projects to model individually</summary>

Model small or short projects as aggregated project pools per studio or client group, and only model large strategic projects individually.

</details>

***

## Related guides

* [Build a Driver Based Forecast](/how-tos/core-modelling/build-a-driver-based-forecast.md)
* [Build a Forecast Accuracy Tracker](/how-tos/scenarios-and-planning/build-a-forecast-accuracy-tracker.md)
* [Mapping API Data Into Variables](/help/importing-from-google-finance-and-yahoo-apis/mapping-api-data-into-variables.md)
* [Branch Assignment](/syntax/variables-syntax/branch-assignment.md)