Build a Forecast from Ticker Fundamentals
This guide explains how to build a forecast model using stock ticker fundamentals as the starting point. You will import historical revenue, costs, profit, assets and other line items for a listed company and then layer your own forward assumptions on top.
The focus here is on fundamentals and cashflows, not on modelling market prices.
Before you start
You should have:
A target stock ticker symbol for the company you want to analyse.
A Model Reef workspace with access to the stock ticker import.
A rough view of future growth, margin and investment assumptions for the company.
If you are new to valuation in Model Reef, see:
Build a DCF Model (FCFF)
Build a Valuation Sensitivity Model
What you will build
By the end you will have:
A Model Reef model populated with historical fundamentals imported via ticker.
Variables representing revenue, COGS, Opex, staff, tax, assets and liabilities.
A forecast of future cashflows based on your own assumptions.
Valuation outputs based on discounted cashflows, not share price.
Create a ticker fundamentals model
Create a new model named, for example:
Ticker - COMPANY - Fundamentals Forecast.
Set the model currency consistent with the reporting currency of the company.
Choose a periodicity (often annual or quarterly for fundamentals).
This model will hold the imported history and your forecast.
Import fundamentals for the chosen ticker
Use the Stock Ticker import:
Enter the ticker symbol (for example
AAPL,GOOG).Select the relevant market if required.
Model Reef will fetch available historical fundamentals, including:
Revenue.
Operating costs.
Profit measures.
Selected Balance Sheet and Cashflow items.
Confirm the mapping of imported items to:
Revenue, COGS, Opex, staff, tax.
Assets and liabilities.
Equity and dividends where available.
The import will create Data Library entries and variables automatically.
Inspect historical statements
Open the system reports:
P&L to review revenue and profit history.
Balance Sheet to see assets, debt and equity.
Cashflow Statement and Cash Waterfall for historical cash movements.
This historical picture should approximate the company's reported figures, subject to any simplifications in the data source.
Set forward assumptions for revenue and margin
Design your forecast:
For revenue:
Create drivers for growth rates by segment where relevant.
Apply them to revenue variables using formulas or presets.
For margins:
Adjust COGS and Opex assumptions to reflect expected efficiency gains or competitive pressure.
For staff costs:
Model headcount and compensation trends if the data is available or relevant.
Model Reef will compute forward P&L automatically based on these assumptions.
Set assumptions for capex, tax and capital structure
To fully specify the forecast:
Capex:
Add Asset variables for future capex, based on maintenance and growth needs.
Choose useful lives and depreciation methods.
Tax:
Set an effective tax rate in line with the company or jurisdiction.
Capital structure:
Represent expected debt levels and any material changes over the horizon.
These assumptions are needed to calculate realistic free cashflows.
Review free cashflows and valuation
With the forecast configured, open the valuation outputs:
Check FCFF and FCFE patterns over the forecast horizon.
Set discount rates (WACC and equity discount rate) consistent with your view of risk.
Choose a terminal value method:
Multiple based on a trailing metric.
Gordon growth based on FCFE and a long term growth rate.
Model Reef will compute NPV, IRR, Money Multiple and payback metrics based on your cashflow forecast.
This valuation is based on fundamentals and assumptions, not on the current share price.
Build scenario models for different views
Because each scenario is a separate model, create copies of your fundamentals model to represent different views, for example:
Ticker - COMPANY - Base.Ticker - COMPANY - Bull.Ticker - COMPANY - Bear.
In each, adjust growth, margin, capex and discount rates. Compare valuation outcomes across models to understand upside and downside around your Base Case.
Check your work
Imported historical figures look reasonable given your knowledge of the company.
Forward assumptions for growth, margins, capex and tax are explicit and documented.
Cashflow and valuation outputs are internally consistent.
Differences between scenarios can be explained in terms of assumption changes.
Troubleshooting
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